Mild sleep disordered breathing is very common in the elderly, but little is known about the course of the disorder over time. Twenty-four elderly people from a population-based study were recorded three times over an 8.5-year period. There were no significant changes in either apnea index or in respiratory disturbance index (RDI) over time, even when controlled for body mass index. For most subjects, there was great variability over time in the number of respiratory disturbances. The sensitivity of RDI > or = 15 at visit 1 predicting RDI > or = 15 at visit 3 was only 20%. The predictive value was 50%. Sleep disordered breathing measured at a single point in time is rather weakly predictive of the severity of breathing disorder 4-8 years later.