Chronic nephrotoxic effects from ciclosporin are a common clinical complication after heart transplantation and frequently lead to progressive renal failure. There is no laboratory test to predict development of chronic renal failure in heart transplant patients. We analysed urinary retinol-binding protein (uRBP) concentration, to assess proximal tubular dysfunction, in 36 clinically stable heart transplant patients. We detected a subgroup of 13 patients who had high concentrations of uRBP, good renal function, and a high risk of developing progressive renal failure compared with patients with normal uRBP (relative risk 3.87, p=0.003).