Satellite-based estimates of ground-level fine particulate matter during extreme events: A case study of the Moscow fires in 2010
Highlights
► Satellite-derived estimates of PM2.5 are effective during Moscow fires in summer 2011. ► Relaxed MODIS AOD cloud screening improves coverage/agreement during major fire event. ► Relaxed MODIS cloud screening shows good agreement with operational product. ► Peak daily PM2.5 of 600 μg m−3 in the Moscow region on August 7th, 2011. ► The 2011 Moscow wildfires likely caused hundreds of excess deaths.
Introduction
Extensive fires occurred in the Moscow region of the Russian Federation starting in late July 2010. No estimates of the health impacts of the Moscow fires have been published to date, but it is reasonable to assume that these extreme, short-lived excursions in ambient air pollution resulted in serious adverse health effects. Large short-term increases in air pollution, or air pollution episodes, in the mid-twentieth century were associated with rapid and pronounced increases in mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular disease (Anderson, 1999). More recent evidence links massive biomass burning from agricultural burning and forest fires to adverse health effects that range from minor irritation of the eyes and respiratory system to increased rates of hospital admissions for respiratory disease and mortality (Naeher et al., 2007). However, ground-level monitors are often sparse or unavailable in regions affected by fires. Additional observations are needed to assess pollutant concentrations and possible health impacts.
Satellite remote sensing of atmospheric aerosol provides a rich data source about particulate matter concentrations and is increasingly being used for health assessment studies during biomass burning events (e.g. Henderson et al., 2011, Rappold et al., 2011). Algorithmic developments continue to improve the accuracy with which ground-levelfine aerosol mass (PM2.5) can be estimated from satellite remote sensing. These estimates use aerosol optical depth (AOD), a measure of the total extinction by aerosol of light passing through the atmospheric column, to estimate PM2.5 through physical, statistical or hybrid relationships developed from ground-level PM2.5 measurements (e.g. Gupta et al., 2006, Koelemeijer et al., 2006, Liu et al., 2007, Liu et al., 2005, Wang and Christopher, 2003). Local observations of PM2.5, vertical structure and relative humidity have all been used to improve the accuracy of remotely sensed PM2.5 (e.g. Di Nicolantonio et al., 2009, Engel-Cox et al., 2006, Schaap et al., 2008).
Chemical transport models, which calculate the four-dimensional distribution of atmospheric aerosol mass, can accurately relate AOD to ground-level PM2.5, allowing estimates in locations without nearby ground-based observations (Drury et al., 2010, Liu et al., 2004, van Donkelaar et al., 2010, van Donkelaar et al., 2006, Wang et al., 2010). Here we apply this approach to the Moscow wildfires to test its performance during major short-term pollution events.
The next section describes our approach to estimate PM2.5 by interpreting AOD retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Results are given and compared with in-situ PM2.5 estimates. Developments to the operational MODIS aerosol retrieval algorithm for extreme events and the sensitivity of the AOD to PM2.5 relationship to local emissions are also discussed. The subsequent section extends previous studies of extreme PM2.5 events to estimate the excess mortality in Moscow during this period.
Section snippets
Retrieval of aerosol optical depth during extreme events
We first examine the MODIS AOD retrieval during the Moscow fires. The MODIS instrument obtains near daily global coverage at 32 spectral bands at a resolution of 250–1000 m, depending on the channel. Two MODIS instruments are currently in operation. The first, onboard the NASA Terra satellite, was launched in 1999 with a 10:30 a.m. local equatorial overpass time. The second, onboard the NASA Aqua satellite, was launched in 2002 with a 1:30 p.m. local equatorial overpass time. The wide spectral
Estimating ground-level aerosol pollution from satellite observations
We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (Bey et al., 2001; v8-03-01; http://geos-chem.org) to relate AOD to ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. The GEOS-Chem model solves for the temporal and spatial evolution of aerosol and trace gases using meteorological data sets, emission inventories, and equations that represent the physics and chemistry of atmospheric composition. The GEOS-Chem aerosol simulation includes the sulphate–ammonium–nitrate–water system (Park et al., 2004), primary
Health impacts of the Moscow fires
Although direct estimates of health impacts of the Moscow fires are not currently available, some insight into the possible magnitude of the health impacts caused by the fires can come from considering the quantitative impacts that have been observed in time series studies associating the daily changes in population mortality with daily average concentration of particulate matter.
We estimate the increased relative risk of death (ΔRRd) on a day with PM10 concentration Cd based on the relative
Conclusions
We estimated daily mean ground-level PM2.5 concentrations from satellite observations during the major biomass burning event around Moscow in summer 2010. The GEOS-Chem model was used to relate aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the MODIS satellite instrument to ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. We found that these satellite-derived estimates well represent ground-level PM2.5 estimated from PM10 measurements (r2 = 0.85, slope = 1.06). Peak daily mean satellite-derived PM2.5 exceed 600 μg m−3 in the
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Health Effects Institute or its sponsors.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Killam Trust.
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