Table 2– Effect of covariates on the rate of moderate and severe exacerbations
FactorRR (95% CI)p-value
Smoking status
 Current versus former0.9 (0.8–0.9)<0.001
Age yrs0.064
 55–64 versus <551.1 (1.0–1.3)0.012
 65–74 versus <551.1 (1.0–1.3)0.020
 ≥75 versus <551.2 (1.0–1.3)0.023
Post-bronchodilator FEV1 % pred<0.001
 <30% versus ≥50%1.9 (1.7–2.1)<0.001
 30 to <50% versus ≥50%1.4 (1.3–1.5)<0.001
Sex
 Male versus female0.7 (0.7–0.8)<0.001
COPD exacerbations in the previous year<0.001
 1 versus 01.5 (1.4–1.6)<0.001
 ≥2 versus 01.9 (1.8–2.1)<0.001
BMI kg·m−2<0.001
 <20 versus 20 to <251.1 (1.0–1.2)0.241
 25 to <29 versus 20 to <251.0 (0.9–1.0)0.262
 ≥29 versus 20 to <250.9 (0.8–0.9)<0.001
MRC dyspnoea grade<0.001
 3 versus 1+21.1 (1.1–1.2)<0.001
 4+5 versus 1+21.3 (1.2–1.4)<0.001
Region<0.001
 North versus south0.8 (0.7–0.9)<0.001
 Tropics versus south0.9 (0.8–1.0)0.045
  • Rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each covariate with all other covariates included in the model. Multivariate negative binomial model (each variable adjusted for all the others). FEV1: forced expiratory volume in 1 s; % pred: % predicted; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; BMI: body mass index; MRC: Medical Research Council.