Comparison of predictions with actual total number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) plus asthma deaths for 1990–1999 in England and Wales in those aged ≥45 yrs
| Smoothing constraint | Data bridge-coded adjusted? | % difference of sum of posterior median predictions from actual total number of deaths | % of age-group categories where actual numbers lie within 25–75% centiles of predictions# | % of age-group categories where actual numbers lie within 5–95% centiles of predictions# | Square root of sum of posterior median predictive deviances |
| COPD males | |||||
| RW1 | No | +10.8 | 62.2 | 93.3 | 36.39 |
| RW1 | Yes | +9.0 | 57.8 | 94.4 | 35.10 |
| RW2 | No | +76.9 | 91.1 | 100.0 | 217.77 |
| RW2 | Yes | +50.0 | 91.1 | 100.0 | 194.21 |
| COPD females | |||||
| RW1 | No | +4.9 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 34.96 |
| RW1 | Yes | +5.6 | 80.0 | 93.3 | 36.01 |
| RW2 | No | +72.6 | 96.7 | 100 | 238.55 |
| RW2 | Yes | +69.7 | 96.7 | 100 | 244.52 |
RW: random walk smoothing constraint. #: represents 90 cells, nine age-group categories over 10 yrs.