Candidate added to CS | Study Day | Symptom | Adjusted Positive LR | Adjusted Negative LR | Candidate added to CS | Study Day | Symptom | Adjusted Positive LR | Adjusted Negative LR | Candidate added to CS | Study Day | Symptom | Adjusted Positive LR | Adjusted Negative LR |
Abdominal pain | 0 | Fever | 3.54 | 0.90 | Appetite loss | 0 | Fever | 3.68 | 0.90 | Breathlessness | 0 | Fever | 3.10 | 0.91 |
Cough | 1.48 | 0.90 | Cough | 1.29 | 0.94 | Cough | 2.12 | 0.82 | ||||||
Anosmia | 10.73 | 0.84 | Anosmia | 9.46 | 0.85 | Anosmia | 11.94 | 0.83 | ||||||
Abdominal pain | 1.19 | 0.98 | Appetite loss | 1.96 | 0.92 | Breathlessness | 0.31 | 1.09 | ||||||
Abdominal pain | 2 | Fever | 3.04 | 0.80 | Appetite loss | 2 | Fever | 3.00 | 0.80 | Breathlessness | 2 | Fever | 3.69 | 0.76 |
Cough | 1.62 | 0.82 | Cough | 1.44 | 0.86 | Cough | 1.88 | 0.77 | ||||||
Anosmia | 4.42 | 0.81 | Anosmia | 4.39 | 0.81 | Anosmia | 5.80 | 0.78 | ||||||
Abdominal pain | 1.58 | 0.94 | Appetite loss | 2.22 | 0.84 | Breathlessness | 0.52 | 1.11 | ||||||
Abdominal pain | 4 | Fever | 3.83 | 0.71 | Appetite loss | 4 | Fever | 3.52 | 0.73 | Breathlessness | 4 | Fever | 5.48 | 0.65 |
Cough | 1.33 | 0.87 | Cough | 1.22 | 0.90 | Cough | 1.56 | 0.80 | ||||||
Anosmia | 7.35 | 0.69 | Anosmia | 6.17 | 0.71 | Anosmia | 11.10 | 0.64 | ||||||
Abdominal pain | 1.04 | 0.99 | Appetite loss | 2.01 | 0.83 | Breathlessness | 0.34 | 1.31 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 0 | Fever | 4.08 | 0.89 | Headache | 0 | Fever | 3.22 | 0.91 | Muscle aches | 0 | Fever | 3.64 | 0.90 |
Cough | 1.26 | 0.94 | Cough | 1.27 | 0.94 | Cough | 1.29 | 0.94 | ||||||
Anosmia | 11.15 | 0.84 | Anosmia | 10.29 | 0.84 | Anosmia | 10.70 | 0.84 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 2.88 | 0.93 | Headache | 1.37 | 0.89 | Muscle aches | 1.37 | 0.91 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 2 | Fever | 2.93 | 0.80 | Headache | 2 | Fever | 2.69 | 0.82 | Muscle aches | 2 | Fever | 2.83 | 0.81 |
Cough | 1.38 | 0.88 | Cough | 1.44 | 0.86 | Cough | 1.35 | 0.88 | ||||||
Anosmia | 5.43 | 0.79 | Anosmia | 4.29 | 0.81 | Anosmia | 4.75 | 0.80 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 2.81 | 0.88 | Headache | 1.33 | 0.79 | Muscle aches | 1.76 | 0.72 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 4 | Fever | 3.82 | 0.72 | Headache | 4 | Fever | 3.43 | 0.73 | Muscle aches | 4 | Fever | 3.36 | 0.74 |
Cough | 1.31 | 0.87 | Cough | 1.20 | 0.91 | Cough | 1.21 | 0.91 | ||||||
Anosmia | 7.35 | 0.69 | Anosmia | 6.61 | 0.70 | Anosmia | 7.05 | 0.69 | ||||||
Diarrhoea | 1.08 | 0.98 | Headache | 1.30 | 0.76 | Muscle aches | 1.37 | 0.80 | ||||||
Nausea | 0 | Fever | 3.54 | 0.90 | Rhinitis | 0 | Fever | 2.75 | 0.92 | Sore throat | 0 | Fever | 2.75 | 0.92 |
Cough | 1.53 | 0.89 | Cough | 1.28 | 0.94 | Cough | 1.28 | 0.94 | ||||||
Anosmia | 10.86 | 0.84 | Anosmia | 6.17 | 0.87 | Anosmia | 6.17 | 0.87 | ||||||
Nausea | 1.02 | 1.00 | Rhinitis | 2.57 | 0.80 | Sore throat | 2.57 | 0.80 | ||||||
Nausea | 2 | Fever | 3.01 | 0.80 | Rhinitis | 2 | Fever | 2.95 | 0.80 | Sore throat | 2 | Fever | 2.95 | 0.80 |
Cough | 1.56 | 0.83 | Cough | 1.40 | 0.87 | Cough | 1.40 | 0.87 | ||||||
Anosmia | 5.08 | 0.79 | Anosmia | 3.07 | 0.85 | Anosmia | 3.07 | 0.85 | ||||||
Nausea | 1.30 | 0.97 | Rhinitis | 1.99 | 0.69 | Sore throat | 1.99 | 0.69 | ||||||
Nausea | 4 | Fever | 3.81 | 0.72 | Rhinitis | 4 | Fever | 3.33 | 0.74 | Sore throat | 4 | Fever | 3.33 | 0.74 |
Cough | 1.31 | 0.87 | Cough | 1.06 | 0.97 | Cough | 1.06 | 0.97 | ||||||
Anosmia | 7.36 | 0.69 | Anosmia | 5.58 | 0.72 | Anosmia | 5.58 | 0.72 | ||||||
Nausea | 1.08 | 0.99 | Rhinitis | 2.29 | 0.58 | Sore throat | 2.29 | 0.58 |
LRs for individual symptoms in combination with other symptoms were calculated using the Spiegelhalter Knill-Jones method which adjusts for the dependency caused by symptom co-occurrence. Adjusted LRs for study days 0–7 are represented graphically in figure 2 and values for study days 0, 2 & 4 are presented here. For any combination of symptoms by a particular time-point, the adjusted LRs can be multiplied together to estimate effect on posttest odds. For example, on study day 0, a contact with fever and headache but without cough or anosmia has 3.22 × 0.94 × 0.84 × 1.37 = 3.90 times the odds of being infected compared to a contact where symptoms are unknown (see S4 for worked example). LR=likelihood ratio, CS=canonical symptoms.