TABLE 1

Regression analyses for early progression and late reactivation of tuberculosis (TB) among contacts of TB patients in Victoria, Australia 2005–2015

TB diseaseCrude OR/HR (95% CI)Adjusted OR/HR (95% CI)p-value
NoYes
Factors associated with early progression#
 Contact characteristics
  Sex
   Female913262RefRef
   Male8349781.38 (0.98–1.93)1.23 (0.88–1.73)0.227
   Not stated1190NANA
  Age
   0–4 years11534411.78 (7.75–17.84)7.79 (4.80–12.62)<0.001*
   5–14 years1951497.75 (5.17–11.61)5.23 (3.39–8.07)<0.001*
   15 years and above14 49647RefRef
  Type of contact
   Close contacts78711238.94 (5.54–15.40)5.73 (3.39–9.69)<0.001*
   Other contacts972917RefRef
  Country of birth
   Low burden11 824100RefRef
   High burden5090400.73 (0.52–1.02)1.76 (1.11–2.81)0.017*
   Not stated6860NANA
  Tuberculin skin test
   Negative12 22211RefNot included
   Positive311210136.06 (20.24–71.31)*
   Not performed22662813.73 (7.02–28.83)*
  BCG
   No499569Ref
   Yes7505370.36 (0.24–0.53)0.47 (0.29–0.77)0.002*
   Not stated/unknown5100340.48 (0.32–0.73)0.79 (0.50–1.23)0.288
 Index characteristics
  Sex
   Male943975Ref
   Female8161651.00 (0.72–1.40)1.14 (0.80–1.62)0.485
  Age
   1–14 years521103.76 (1.76–7.31)0.20 (0.03–1.45)0.110
   15–24 years724937Ref
   25–44 years5181732.76 (1.87–4.15)1.04 (0.69–1.55)0.860
   45–64 years1713171.94 (1.06–3.40)1.57 (0.91–2.71)0.101
   65 years and above293630.20 (0.05–0.55)0.60 (0.32–1.13)0.111
  Country of birth
   High burden889777RefRef
   Low burden8703770.84 (0.60–1.17)1.15 (0.81–1.63)0.446
  Method of case finding
   Clinical presentation16 628132RefRef
   Other methods97281.04 (0.46–1.99)1.71 (0.91–3.21)0.096
  Site of TB
   Pulmonary14 655122RefRef
   Pulmonary plus other site2945180.73 (0.43–1.17)1.20 (0.76–1.90)0.435
  Type of TB
   New16 584130RefRef
   Recurrent774101.65 (0.81–2.99)2.68 (1.42–5.06)0.002*
   Unknown2420NANA
  Chest radiography finding
   Abnormal, no cavity10 17279RefRef
   Abnormal, cavity5959551.19 (0.84–1.68)1.20 (0.82–1.75)0.347
   Abnormal, no details26510.49 (0.07–3.51)0.30 (0.04–2.21)0.236
   Normal33920.76 (0.19–3.10)0.72 (0.17–3.04)0.655
   Not stated/done86530.45 (0.14–1.42)0.42 (0.13–1.36)0.146
  Sputum smear
   Yes221215RefRef
   No3609310.85 (0.49–1.47)0.88 (0.47–1.62)0.677
   Not done/recorded11 779941.08 (0.72–1.62)1.29 (0.83–2.01)0.264
Factors associated with late reactivation
 Contact characteristics
  Sex
   Female758531RefRef
   Male6733351.26 (0.77–2.06)1.20 (0.74–1.96)0.460
   Not stated1120NANA
  Type of contact
   Close contacts5785504.43 (2.49–7.86)3.25 (1.81–5.82)<0.001*
   Other contacts864516Ref
  Country of birth
   Low burden924623RefRef
   High burden4602433.73 (2.23–6.24)2.17 (1.26–3.75)0.005*
   Not stated5820NANA
  Tuberculin skin test
   Negative962916RefNot included
   Positive2729356.94 (3.78–2.74)*
   Not performed2072155.06 (2.45–0.43)*
  BCG
   No33743RefRef
   Yes6794467.89 (2.43–25.65)4.54 (1.35–15.28)0.014*
   Not stated4262174.48 (1.30–15.42)3.52 (1.01–12.26)0.048*
 Index characteristics
  Sex
   Male763224RefRef
   Female6798422.08 (1.14–3.82)0.55 (0.29–1.03)0.06
  Country of birth
   High burden767236RefRef
   Low burden6758301.39 (0.76–2.54)1.43 (0.78–2.60)0.24
  Method of case finding
   Clinical presentation13 53364RefRef
   Other methods89720.50 (0.11–2.27)0.42 (0.09–1.89)0.26
  Type of TB
   New case13 55364RefRef
   Recurrent70420.72 (0.14–3.69)0.82 (0.16–4.11)0.81
   Unknown1730NANA
  Chest radiography finding
   Abnormal, no cavity802540RefRef
   Abnormal, cavity5285250.92 (0.56–1.52)0.62 (0.16–4.11)0.17
   Abnormal, no details1850NANA
   Normal2910NANA
   Not done/stated64410.27 (0.04–1.99)0.40 (0.04–3.89)0.43

*: statistically significant. #: logistic regression (all contacts, n=17 740); analysis results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. : Cox regression (contacts age ≥15 years, n=14 496); analysis results are presented as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals.