Diagnostic accuracy of the model in the external validation sample#
| Cut-point | Patients at/above cut-point¶ | Sensitivity | Specificity | Correctly classified | Positive likelihood ratio | Negative likelihood ratio | Positive predictive value | Negative predictive value | NND |
| ≥2.5 | 88.2 | 97.4 (90.9–99.7) | 12.5 (10.5–14.7) | 18.6 | 1.11 (1.07–1.16) | 0.21 (0.05–0.82) | 7.9 (6.2–9.8) | 98.4 (94.5–99.8) | 13 (11–17) |
| ≥5.0 | 53.7 | 80.5 (69.9–88.7) | 48.4 (45.3–51.5)) | 50.7 | 1.56 (1.38–1.77) | 0.40 (0.25–0.64) | 10.7 (8.3–13.5) | 97.0 (95.1–98.3) | 10 (8–13) |
| ≥7.5 | 33.9 | 68.8 (57.3–78.9) | 68.8 (65.8–71.6) | 68.8 | 2.21 (1.85–2.63) | 0.45 (0.32–0.63) | 14.4 (11.0–18.5) | 96.6 (95.1–97.8) | 7 (6–10) |
| ≥10.0 | 24.8 | 54.5 (42.8–65.9) | 77.5 (74.8–80.1) | 75.9 | 2.43 (1.92–3.07) | 0.59 (0.46–0.75) | 15.7 (11.5–20.6) | 95.7 (94.1–97.0) | 7 (5–9) |
| ≥12.5 | 19.8 | 46.8 (35.3–58.5) | 82.3 (79.8–84.6) | 79.8 | 2.64 (2.01–3.47) | 0.65 (0.52–0.80) | 16.8 (12.1–22.5) | 95.3 (93.7–96.6) | 6 (5–9) |
| ≥15.0 | 15.0 | 41.6 (30.4–53.4) | 87.0 (84.7–89.0) | 83.8 | 3.19 (2.34–4.35) | 0.67 (0.56–0.81) | 19.6 (13.8–26.6) | 95.1 (93.5–96.4) | 6 (4–8) |
| ≥17.5 | 9.9 | 33.8 (23.4–45.4) | 91.9 (90.0–93.5) | 87.7 | 4.14 (2.85–6.03) | 0.72 (0.61–0.85) | 24.1 (16.4–33.3) | 94.8 (93.2–96.1) | 5 (3–7) |
| ≥20.0 | 8.3 | 28.6 (18.8–40.0) | 93.2 (91.5–94.7) | 88.6 | 4.23 (2.77–6.44) | 0.77 (0.66–0.88) | 24.4 (16.0–34.6) | 94.5 (92.9–95.8) | 5 (3–6) |
| ≥22.5 | 5.9 | 20.8 (12.4–31.5) | 95.2 (93.7–96.5) | 89.9 | 4.36 (2.60–7.30) | 0.83 (0.74–0.93) | 25.0 (15.0–37.4) | 94.0 (92.4–95.4) | 4 (3–7) |
| ≥25.0 | 3.7 | 14.3 (7.4–24.1) | 97.1 (95.9–98.1) | 91.2 | 4.96 (2.58–9.53) | 0.88 (0.81–0.97) | 27.5 (14.6–43.9) | 93.7 (92.0–95.1) | 4 (3–7) |
| ≥30.0 | 2.6 | 14.3 (7.4–24.1) | 98.3 (97.3–99.0) | 92.3 | 8.45 (4.11–17.4) | 0.87 (0.80–0.96) | 39.3 (21.5–59.4) | 93.7 (92.1–95.1) | 3 (2–5) |
| ≥35.0 | 1.9 | 10.4 (4.6–19.4) | 98.8 (97.9–99.4) | 92.5 | 8.71 (3.67–20.7) | 0.91 (0.84–0.98) | 40.0 (19.1–63.9) | 93.5 (91.9–94.9) | 3 (2–6) |
| ≥40.0 | 1.2 | 6.5 (2.1–14.5) | 99.2 (98.4–99.7) | 92.6 | 8.17 (2.74–24.4) | 0.94 (0.89–1.00) | 38.5 (13.9–68.4) | 93.3 (91.6–94.7) | 3 (2–8) |
| ≥45.0 | 0.8 | 2.6 (0.3–9.1) | 99.3 (98.6–99.7) | 92.4 | 3.73 (0.79–17.7) | 0.98 (0.95–1.02) | 22.2 (2.8–60.0) | 93.0 (91.3–94.5) | 5 (2–36) |
| ≥50.0 | 0.6 | 2.6 (0.3–9.1) | 99.6 (99.0–99.9) | 92.7 | 6.53 (1.22–35.1) | 0.98 (0.94–1.01) | 33.3 (4.3–77.7) | 93.0 (91.3–94.5) | 3 (2–23) |
Data are presented as % or n (95% CI). NND: number of diagnostic assessments needed per case detected. #: n=1083; ¶: percentage of subjects with a predicted risk score at or above the cut-point.