Yield of screening, number needed to screen, and relative rates of yield obtained from Bayesian Poisson regression models
| Characteristic | N | Cases with active TB detected | Yield of active TB per 100 000 screened (95% CrI) | Number needed to screen to detect 1 case of active TB (95% CrI) | Relative risk (95% CrI) | |
| Mutually adjusted model I: countries >5 cases versus other | Mutually adjusted model II: countries with >5000 screened versus other | |||||
| Age group | ||||||
| <15 years | 24 249 | 4 | 16 (6, 39) | 6062 (2550, 17 959) | 0.20 (0.08, 0.64) | 0.22 (0.07, 0.59) |
| 15–24 years | 35 390 | 35 | 99 (70, 136) | 1011 (736, 1427) | 0.74 (0.48, 1.16) | 0.85 (0.55, 1.31) |
| 25–44 years | 51 111 | 56 | 110 (84, 141) | 913 (708, 1196) | Ref. | Ref. |
| 45–64 years | 7583 | 3 | 40 (11, 106) | 2528 (947, 8974) | 0.48 (0.13, 1.42) | 0.45 (0.11, 1.31) |
| >64 years | 616 | 0 | 0.06 (<0.01, 3.11) | 0.03 (1.18, 3.94) | ||
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 36 872 | 13 | 35 (20, 59) | 2836 (1707, 5060) | Ref. | Ref. |
| Male | 82 051 | 85 | 104 (83, 127) | 965 (785, 1200) | 2.09 (1.17, 3.97) | 2.09 (1.15, 3.96) |
| Year | ||||||
| 2002–2012 | 36 647 | 41 | 112 (81, 150) | 894 (666, 1228) | Ref. | Ref. |
| 2013 | 14 407 | 7 | 49 (22, 95) | 2058 (1048, 4601) | 0.42 (0.17, 0.91) | 0.48 (0.20, 1.05) |
| 2014 | 23 916 | 24 | 100 (66, 147) | 997 (681, 1516) | 0.65 (0.36, 1.17) | 0.99 (0.58, 1.68) |
| 2015 | 44 067 | 26 | 59 (39, 85) | 1695 (1175, 2534) | 0.52 (0.30, 0.90) | 0.68 (0.40, 1.14) |
| Country# | ||||||
| Afghanistan | 7433 | 2 | 27 (6, 86) | 3716 (1159, 17 883) | 0.22 (0.04, 0.82) | |
| Cameroon | 2506 | 5 | 200 (76, 437) | 501 (229, 1313) | 2.70 (0.90, 6.68) | |
| Eritrea | 1941 | 9 | 464 (230, 845) | 216 (118, 435) | 8.95 (3.83, 19.77) | |
| Gambia | 6971 | 18 | 258 (159, 399) | 387 (251, 630) | 4.53 (2.42, 8.37) | 1.78 (0.99, 3.15) |
| Georgia | 2121 | 5 | 236 (90, 516) | 424 (194, 1111) | 4.05 (1.37, 10.26) | |
| Iraq | 9955 | 1 | 10 (1, 47) | 9955 (2130, 92 262) | 0.06 (<0.01, 0.36) | |
| Kosovo | 20 336 | 7 | 34 (15, 68) | 2905 (1480, 6494) | 0.86 (0.34, 1.91) | 0.37 (0.15, 0.80) |
| Macedonia | 7005 | 2 | 29 (6, 92) | 3502 (1092, 16 854) | 0.31 (0.06, 1.14) | |
| Pakistan | 5103 | 7 | 137 (61, 269) | 729 (372, 1629) | 1.88 (0.74, 4.17) | 0.87 (0.37, 1.84) |
| Russia | 3026 | 5 | 165 (63, 362) | 605 (276, 1585) | 3.17 (1.07, 7.90) | |
| Somalia | 1025 | 7 | 683 (306, 1336) | 146 (75, 327) | 11.85 (4.70, 26.65) | |
| Syria | 17 172 | 5 | 29 (11, 64) | 3434 (1567, 9000) | 0.67 (0.22, 1.68) | 0.27 (0.09, 0.65) |
| Other | Ref. | Ref. | ||||
The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) was 304 in the mutually adjusted model I and 260 in the mutually adjusted model II. Lower values of the WAIC indicate a better prediction model. #: countries with either ≥5 cases of active tuberculosis (TB) detected or more than 5000 individuals screened. RR: relative risk; CrI: credible interval.