Predictors of disease progression resulting in treatment initiation within 3 years of diagnosis of Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease (MAC-LD) in a total of 466 patients#
| Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||
| HR (95% CI) | p-value | HR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age years | 0.990 (0.980–1.001) | 0.072 | 0.987 (0.975–0.999) | 0.040 |
| Male | 0.976 (0.767–1.243) | 0.846 | ||
| BMI kg·m−2 | 0.890 (0.856–0.925) | <0.001 | 0.926 (0.882–0.973) | 0.002 |
| Smoker | 0.887 (0.695–1.133) | 0.337 | ||
| Past history of pulmonary TB | 1.269 (0.991–1.624) | 0.059 | 0.987 (0.746–1.306) | 0.928 |
| Presence of comorbidity¶ | 0.911 (0.714–1.162) | 0.452 | ||
| Presence of systemic symptom+ | 1.560 (1.191–2.045) | 0.001 | 1.490 (1.095–2.028) | 0.011 |
| Positive sputum AFB smear | 2.298 (1.795–2.941) | <0.001 | 1.811 (1.350–2.428) | <0.001 |
| Causative organism | 0.001 | 0.364 | ||
| Mycobacterium avium | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mycobacterium intracellulare | 1.512 (1.186–1.928) | 0.869 (0.642–1.177) | ||
| Radiological type: fibrocavitary | 2.695 (2.099–3.460) | <0.001 | 2.102 (1.519–2.908) | <0.001 |
| Involved lobes | 1.384 (1.260–1.519) | <0.001 | 1.178 (1.050–1.322) | 0.005 |
| FVC % pred | 0.991 (0.984–1.998) | 0.011 | 1.001 (0.994–1.009) | 0.712 |
HR: hazard ratio; BMI: body mass index; TB: tuberculosis; AFB: acid-fast bacilli; FVC: forced vital capacity. #: analysed after excluding 22 patients who were started on treatment for MAC-LD after at least 3 years of stable period from diagnosis and including 68 patients who were not treated with a follow-up duration of <3 years to reduce selection bias (n=466); ¶: bronchiectasis was not included in the comorbidities because nonfibrocavitary type (mostly nodular bronchiectatic type) significantly overlapped with the presence of bronchiectasis; +: systemic symptoms included fever, fatigue or weight loss at the time of diagnosis. p<0.05 was considered significant.