Discrimination and calibration for predicting all-cause mortality in the 5-year follow-up subpopulation of the PROMISE study

Indices3-year mortality5-year mortality#
C-statistic (95% CI)CalibrationC-statistic (95% CI)Calibration
BODE index0.59 (0.50–0.67)0.60.60 (0.54–0.67)0.6
Updated BODE index0.60 (0.52–0.69)0.90.62 (0.55–0.68)0.4
ADO index+0.67 (0.59–0.75)0.110.68 (0.61–0.74)0.2
DOSE index+0.58 (0.50–0.65)0.70.58 (0.52–0.64)0.2
Simplified B-AE-D index0.65 (0.57–0.72)0.20.62 (0.57–0.67)0.3
Simplified B-AE-D-C index0.71 (0.64–0.79)0.70.68 (0.62–0.74)0.4
Optimised B-AE-D index0.65 (0.57–0.72)0.30.62 (0.56–0.68)0.2
Optimised B-AE-D-C index0.71 (0.63–0.78)0.100.67 (0.61–0.73)0.07
  • PROMISE: Predicting Outcome using Systemic Markers in Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; BODE: body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity; ADO: age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction; DOSE: dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; B: body mass index; AE: severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease frequency; D: modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity; C: copeptin. #: n=231; : 211 missing values in lung function test or 6-min walking distance; +: 229 missing values in lung function test.