| Predictor variable | Original clinical model [7]# | Novel clinical model¶ | ||
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) | p-value | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age years | ||||
| ≥70 | 2.21 (1.35–3.62) | 0.002 | 2.35 (1.14–4.82) | 0.02 |
| 60–69 | 1.49 (0.90–2.46) | 0.12 | 2.29 (1.13–4.63) | 0.02 |
| <60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Respiratory hospitalisation | 4.11 (2.57–6.58) | <0.001 | 3.54 (1.80–6.97) | <0.01 |
| Baseline FVC % predicted | ||||
| ≤50 | 5.79 (2.55–13.15) | <0.001 | 6.86 (1.99–23.60) | <0.01 |
| 51–65 | 3.54 (1.95–6.44) | <0.001 | 2.92 (1.39–6.13) | <0.01 |
| 66–79 | 2.20 (1.19–4.09) | 0.012 | 2.17 (1.02–4.63) | 0.05 |
| ≥80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| 24-week change in FVC % predicted | ||||
| ≤ -10 | 7.99 (5.26–12.14) | <0.001 | 5.86 (3.33–10.81) | <0.01 |
| -5– -9.9 | 2.60 (1.75–3.85) | <0.001 | 2.74 (1.61–4.68) | <0.01 |
| > -5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Baseline 6MWD m | ||||
| <250 | 2.12 (1.15–3.92) | 0.02 | ||
| 250–349 | 1.28 (0.74–2.21) | 0.38 | ||
| ≥350 | 1.00 | |||
| 24-week change in 6MWD m | ||||
| < -50 | 2.73 (1.60–4.66) | <0.01 | ||
| -50– -26 | 2.94 (1.56–5.53) | <0.01 | ||
| ≥ -25 | 1.00 | |||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | 0.75 (0.71–0.79) | 0.80 (0.76–0.85) | ||
FVC: forced vital capacity; 6MWD: 6-min walk distance. #: patient visits n=1854, deaths n=142; ¶: patient visits n=1156, deaths n=79.