RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Usefulness of CURB-65, PSI and MuLBSTA in predicting COVID-19 mortality
JF European Respiratory Journal
JO Eur Respir J
FD European Respiratory Society
SP PA3662
DO 10.1183/13993003.congress-2021.PA3662
VO 58
IS suppl 65
A1 Carlo Preti
A1 Roberta Biza
A1 Luca Novelli
A1 Arianna Ghirardi
A1 Caterina Conti
A1 Chiara Galimberti
A1 Lorenzo Della Bella
A1 Irdi Memaj
A1 Ivan Oppedisano
A1 Federico Zanardi
A1 Fabiano Di Marco
A1 Roberto Cosentini
YR 2021
UL http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/58/suppl_65/PA3662.abstract
AB Objective: The aim is to evaluate the accuracy of CURB-65, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and MuLBSTA, a viral pneumonia, in predicting mortality in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia admitted at Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital from February 23rd to March 14th, 2020. We calculated CURB-65, PSI and MuLBSTA comparing their performances in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors at 28 days.Results: Among 431 hospitalized patients, the majority presented with hypoxic respiratory failure: median (IQR) PaO2/FiO2 ratio at admission was 228.6 (142.0-278.1). In the first 24 hours, 111 (27%) patients were administered low-flow oxygen cannula, 50 (12%) Venturi Mask, 95 (23%) non-rebreather mask, 106 (26%) non-invasive ventilation, 12 (3%) mechanical ventilation and 41 (9%) were not administered oxygen therapy. Mortality rate at 28-day was 35% (150/431). Between survivors and non-survivors, median (IQR) scores were 1.0 (1.0-2.0) and 2.0 (2.0-3.0) (p<0.001) for CURB-65; 90.5 (76.0-105.5) and 115.0 (100.0-129.0) for PSI (p<0.001); 7.0 (5.0-10.0) and 11.0 (9.0-13.0) for MuLBSTA (p<0.001). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were, respectively, 0.725 (0.662-0.787), 0.776 (0.693-0.859) and 0.743 (0.680-0.806) (p>0,05). PSI and MuLBSTA did not show a better performance when compared to CURB-65.Conclusions: CURB-65, PSI and MuLBSTA scores are useful to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors in COVID-19 pneumonia even if diagnostic accuracy in discriminating 28-day mortality is moderate with potential underestimation in the low-risk classes of the scores.FootnotesCite this article as: European Respiratory Journal 2021; 58: Suppl. 65, PA3662.This abstract was presented at the 2021 ERS International Congress, in session “Prediction of exacerbations in patients with COPD”.This is an ERS International Congress abstract. No full-text version is available. Further material to accompany this abstract may be available at www.ers-education.org (ERS member access only).