RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 An ecological survey of time trends and associated risk factors for childhood asthma in Aberdeen 1964 – 2014
JF European Respiratory Journal
JO Eur Respir J
FD European Respiratory Society
SP OA1472
DO 10.1183/13993003.congress-2015.OA1472
VO 46
IS suppl 59
A1 Steve Turner
A1 Maxwell S. Barnish
A1 Nara Tagiyeva
A1 Graham Devereux
A1 Lorna Aucott
YR 2015
UL http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/46/suppl_59/OA1472.abstract
AB Background: Asthma is among the most common chronic childhood diseases and many different theories have been posited.Aims and objectives: To explore changes in asthma prevalence in the context of changes in the prevalences of asthma risk factors in 9 – 12 year-old children in Aberdeen 1964 – 2014.Methods: Children attending schools within the 1964 Aberdeen city boundaries were eligible. Surveys conducted in 1964, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014 used near-identical questionnaires. Logistic regression with piecewise partitioning, similar to splines, to account for non-linear time variations was used for analysis.Results: Over the 7 surveys, 23077 eligible questionnaires were distributed and 17379 returned (75%). The mean (SD) age was 11.0 (1.0) and 50% were boys. The figure shows asthma prevalence increasing to 2004 and falling thereafter and this trend was followed by a similar trend in obesity. Trends in other risk factors for asthma did not follow trends in asthma.Conclusions: Our findings do not support the presence of causal relationships between asthma and atopy (as evidenced by eczema) or parental smoking. There may be a complex relationship between childhood asthma and obesity.