PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Kerstin Gallmeier
AU  - Eva Becker
AU  - Anne Kirsten
AU  - Gabriele Wölke
AU  - Olaf Manuwald
AU  - Heike Meyer
AU  - Helgo Magnussen
AU  - Dennis Nowak
AU  - Joachim Heinrich
TI  - Prediction of new-onset asthma and nasal allergy by skin prick test and RAST in a cohort of adults
AID  - 10.1183/09031936.00012813
DP  - 2013 Jan 01
TA  - European Respiratory Journal
PG  - erj00128-2013
4099  - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2013/09/11/09031936.00012813.short
4100  - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2013/09/11/09031936.00012813.full
AB  - Limited information exists regarding the incidence and predictors of asthma and nasal allergy in adulthood. We determined the incidence rate of asthma and nasal allergy in adults and assessed the predictive value of skin prick tests (SPT) and radioallergosorbent tests (RAST) on these two outcomes. Two German centres involved in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey conducted a follow-up assessment in 2012 of the baseline participants (1185 adults aged 21 to 47 assessed in 1990). The predictive value of SPT and RAST on new-onset asthma and nasal allergy was assessed by cox regression and by calculating the positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV). During the 20 years between baseline and follow-up, 3.1 and 4.4 per 1000 person-years new-onset asthma and nasal allergy cases were recorded, respectively. The hazard ratios for SPT of any specific and of all aeroallergens combined were slightly higher than those of RAST for asthma and nasal allergy. The NPVs of both SPT and RAST were very high and similar (0.94–0.96) whereas the PPVs were low (0.09–0.20). Positive SPT results showed a better association with new onset asthma and nasal allergy than positive RAST to any specific aeroallergens or to all combined.