TY - JOUR T1 - Serum CC chemokine ligand-18 predicts lung disease worsening in systemic sclerosis JF - European Respiratory Journal JO - Eur Respir J DO - 10.1183/09031936.00004711 SP - erj00047-2011 AU - K.P. Tiev AU - T. Hua-Huy AU - A. Kettaneh AU - M. Gain AU - S. Duong-Quy AU - C. Tolédano AU - J. Cabane AU - A.T. Dinh-Xuan Y1 - 2011/01/01 UR - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2011/05/18/09031936.00004711.abstract N2 - Elevated serum CCL18 reflects lung fibrosis activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and could be an early marker of lung function worsening. We have therefore sought to evaluate whether serum CCL18 levels at baseline could predict the worsening of lung disease in SSc.In this prospective study, 83 SSc patients enrolled were analyzed longitudinally over 4 years observation period for the risk of occurrence of combined deleterious events, defined as 10% decrease from baseline of predicted values, of total lung capacity, or forced vital capacity, or death, according to serum CCL18 at inclusion. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for prediction of event during the first year after inclusion.The best cut-off of CCL18 for prediction of combined event within the year of follow-up was 187 ng·mL−1 with sensitivity: 53%, and specificity: 96% (area under ROC curve= 0.86; p<0.001). After 33.7±10.8 months of follow-up, a higher rate of disease progression occurred in the group with serum CCL18 levels >187 ng·mL−1. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 5.36; (95% confidence intervals: 2.44–11.75, p<0.001).In summary, Serum CCL18 is an accurate predictive biomarker to identify patients with higher risk of subsequent scleroderma lung disease worsening. ER -