An estimate of the global COPD prevalence in 2050: Disparities by income and gender

Abstract

Background: COPD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. An aging population, air pollution and smoking trends may all contribute to the global burden of disease.

Aim: We sought to estimate the potential number of COPD patients in 2050, accounting for known risk factors and their trends over time.

Methods: COPD prevalence rates were obtained from a meta-analysis (Adeloye, 2022) and extrapolated to prior years. We used these data to project the prevalence of COPD globally, to 2050. We developed gender-specific generalized additive models, which included year, human development index (a marker of socioeconomic development), estimates of smoking prevalence, and household air pollution.

Results: We projected that approximately 645.6 million people will have COPD by 2050, which represents a 36% relative increase in global prevalence from 2020. We project a total of 454.4 million men and 191.2 million women will have COPD. Although high income countries are projected to have high COPD prevalence rates, the increasing COPD burden was largely driven by projected rates in lower-middle income countries (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia). In addition, although male COPD prevalence is projected to be 13.8% vs.16.9% in low vs. high income countries, the absolute number of patients with COPD will be more than double in low vs. high income countries. For female COPD projections, similar trends are anticipated.

Conclusions: COPD is a major public health problem and projected to become more prevalent, particularly in developing countries. Further efforts regarding education, advocacy and prevention are needed to address patient needs and associated health care costs.