Abstract
Background: The COVID 19 pandemic was associated to a high morbimortality since 2019. A wide spectrum of clinical course, ranging from mild disease to respiratory failure (and death) has been reported in the literature.
Objective: To evaluate whether a multivariate score could predict clinical outcomes in COVID 19 infected inpatients.
Methods: A registry-based cohort study was performed investigating patients admitted to a hospital located in a low-medium income country (Brazil) from Feb 2020 to Jan 2021, all diagnosed with COVID 19 infection. Subjects were stratified into two groups, according to a clinical composite outcome of death and/or need for mechanical ventilation. Clinical data at admission were studied as predictors of poor prognosis. Logistic regression was used to derivate a model composed by predictors of a poor prognosis (death and/or need for mechanical ventilation). Accuracy and calibration were analyzed through area under the ROC curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow’s test, respectively.
Results: 407 patients (age 63.8 + 17.6, 58.1 % male) were evaluated. Among the 18 variables associated with death and/or need for mechanical ventilation, 3 remained independent predictors: age; creatinine value and PaO2/FiO2 ratio, with a discriminatory capacity represented by C-statistic of 0.83 (95% CI = 0.79 – 0.88) and calibration represented by Hosmer-Lemeshow’s Chi-Square of 6.186 and P value of 0.626.
Conclusion: The proposed multivariate score seems to be accurate for predicting a poorer prognosis in COVID-19 infected patients admitted to a hospital.
Footnotes
Cite this article as: European Respiratory Journal 2021; 58: Suppl. 65, PA3894.
This abstract was presented at the 2021 ERS International Congress, in session “Prediction of exacerbations in patients with COPD”.
This is an ERS International Congress abstract. No full-text version is available. Further material to accompany this abstract may be available at www.ers-education.org (ERS member access only).
- Copyright ©the authors 2021
