Predictors of COVID-19-related mortality: experience of the isolation unit at the Gabes regional hospital

Abstract

Introduction: COVID 19 is a pandemic declared at the start of the year, the severity of which lies in the risk of developing in (20%) of cases a cascade of complications that can lead in nearly (3%) of cases to death. The aim of our work is to study the risk factors for mortality in our patients.

Methods: Retrospective study including 128 patients with COVID 19, hospitalized in a specialized isolation unit. The period was between July 2020 and January 2021. Diagnostic confirmation is obtained either by RT-PCR on a nasopharyngeal swab and/or chest scanner typical of COVID19 disease

Results: The median age was 66, [27- 93]. A slight male predominance (51%).Three quarter of our patients had a medical history with a predominance for hypertension (36%) and diabetes (39%). The presence of contagion with a positive contact subject was reported in (71%) of cases. An average consultation time of 6 days was found. The use of the intensive care unit was for 8 cases (6%) and they were all dead. Mortality reached (23%). The correlations found to be significant with mortality are as follows: age (p = 0.05), active smoking (p = 0.016), hypertension (p = 0.02), diabetes (p = 0.002), COPD ( p = 0.007) time to consultation (p = 0.029), desaturation on admission (p = 0.005), polypnea (p = 0.005), the presence of signs of respiratory struggles (p = 0.007), diarrhea (p = 0.045) and recourse to the intensive care unit (p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis showed that active smoking, polypnea and the use of intensive care facilities are the only independent factors of mortality.

Conclusion: Active smoking is a predictor of mortality, respiratory rate is an independent and effective means of predicting mortality