Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Current issue
  • ERJ Early View
  • Past issues
  • ERS Guidelines
  • Authors/reviewers
    • Instructions for authors
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Open access
    • COVID-19 submission information
    • Peer reviewer login
  • Alerts
  • Subscriptions
  • ERS Publications
    • European Respiratory Journal
    • ERJ Open Research
    • European Respiratory Review
    • Breathe
    • ERS Books
    • ERS publications home

User menu

  • Log in
  • Subscribe
  • Contact Us
  • My Cart

Search

  • Advanced search
  • ERS Publications
    • European Respiratory Journal
    • ERJ Open Research
    • European Respiratory Review
    • Breathe
    • ERS Books
    • ERS publications home

Login

European Respiratory Society

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Current issue
  • ERJ Early View
  • Past issues
  • ERS Guidelines
  • Authors/reviewers
    • Instructions for authors
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Open access
    • COVID-19 submission information
    • Peer reviewer login
  • Alerts
  • Subscriptions

Moving beyond AUC: decision curve analysis for quantifying net benefit of risk prediction models

Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Amin Adibi, Milo Puhan, Andrea Gershon, Shawn D. Aaron, Don D. Sin
European Respiratory Journal 2021 58: 2101186; DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01186-2021
Mohsen Sadatsafavi
1Respiratory Evaluation Sciences Program, Collaboration for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Mohsen Sadatsafavi
  • For correspondence: msafavi@mail.ubc.ca
Amin Adibi
1Respiratory Evaluation Sciences Program, Collaboration for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Milo Puhan
2Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Milo Puhan
Andrea Gershon
3Institute of Clinical Evaluation Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Andrea Gershon
Shawn D. Aaron
4The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Don D. Sin
5Centre for Heart Lung Innovation, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • Figures & Data
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Abstract

Statistical constructs such as ROC/AUC do not answer the critical question of how much clinical utility a risk prediction model confers. This paper overviews decision curve analysis, a novel method for quantifying net benefit of a risk prediction model. https://bit.ly/3h1rraX

Footnotes

  • Conflict of interest: M. Sadatsafavi reports grants and personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca, personal fees from GlaxoSmithKline and Teva, outside the submitted work.

  • Conflict of interest: A. Adibi has nothing to disclose.

  • Conflict of interest: M. Puhan has nothing to disclose.

  • Conflict of interest: A. Gershon has nothing to disclose.

  • Conflict of interest: S.D. Aaron has nothing to disclose.

  • Conflict of interest: D.D. Sin reports grants and personal fees for advisory board and educational work from AstraZeneca, personal fees for lectures from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees for advisory board work from Grifols, outside the submitted work.

  • Support statement: This work was supported by the BC SUPPORT Unit Methods Cluster Project Award, grant HESM 205. Funding information for this article has been deposited with the Crossref Funder Registry.

  • Received April 26, 2021.
  • Accepted August 31, 2021.
  • Copyright ©The authors 2021. For reproduction rights and permissions contact permissions{at}ersnet.org
https://www.ersjournals.com/user-licence
View Full Text

ERS Members

myERS - ERS members : log in with your myERS username and password.

INDIVIDUALS

Log in Login as an individual user.

Forgot your username or password?

LIBRARY USERS

Log in through your institution

If your library has a subscription, you may already be logged in via your IP address. Otherwise you may be able to log in via one of the following routes.
You may be able to gain access using your login credentials for your institution. Contact your library if you do not have a username and password.
If your organization uses OpenAthens, you can log in using your OpenAthens username and password. To check if your institution is supported, please see this list. Contact your library for more details.
If you think you should have access, please contact your librarian or email journals@ersnet.org

Purchase access

You may purchase access to this article. This will require you to create an account if you don't already have one.
PreviousNext
Back to top
View this article with LENS
Vol 58 Issue 5 Table of Contents
European Respiratory Journal: 58 (5)
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author
Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on European Respiratory Society .

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Moving beyond AUC: decision curve analysis for quantifying net benefit of risk prediction models
(Your Name) has sent you a message from European Respiratory Society
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the European Respiratory Society web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Print
Citation Tools
Moving beyond AUC: decision curve analysis for quantifying net benefit of risk prediction models
Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Amin Adibi, Milo Puhan, Andrea Gershon, Shawn D. Aaron, Don D. Sin
European Respiratory Journal Nov 2021, 58 (5) 2101186; DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01186-2021

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero

Share
Moving beyond AUC: decision curve analysis for quantifying net benefit of risk prediction models
Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Amin Adibi, Milo Puhan, Andrea Gershon, Shawn D. Aaron, Don D. Sin
European Respiratory Journal Nov 2021, 58 (5) 2101186; DOI: 10.1183/13993003.01186-2021
Reddit logo Technorati logo Twitter logo Connotea logo Facebook logo Mendeley logo
Full Text (PDF)

Jump To

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Background
    • How does it work? A case study in prediction of acute exacerbations of COPD
    • Treatment threshold at the core of net benefit calculation for risk predictors
    • Current state of the art in respiratory medicine
    • How is it likely to be used in future?
    • Shareable PDF
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & Data
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

More in this TOC Section

  • 3D (bio)printing of lungs
  • Minimal important change for patient-reported outcome instruments
  • Prognostic models for respiratory diseases
Show more ERJ Methods

Related Articles

Navigate

  • Home
  • Current issue
  • Archive

About the ERJ

  • Journal information
  • Editorial board
  • Press
  • Permissions and reprints
  • Advertising

The European Respiratory Society

  • Society home
  • myERS
  • Privacy policy
  • Accessibility

ERS publications

  • European Respiratory Journal
  • ERJ Open Research
  • European Respiratory Review
  • Breathe
  • ERS books online
  • ERS Bookshop

Help

  • Feedback

For authors

  • Instructions for authors
  • Publication ethics and malpractice
  • Submit a manuscript

For readers

  • Alerts
  • Subjects
  • Podcasts
  • RSS

Subscriptions

  • Accessing the ERS publications

Contact us

European Respiratory Society
442 Glossop Road
Sheffield S10 2PX
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 114 2672860
Email: journals@ersnet.org

ISSN

Print ISSN:  0903-1936
Online ISSN: 1399-3003

Copyright © 2023 by the European Respiratory Society