A re-analysis in exploring the association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility: an ecological study with 154 Chinese cities

Association between temperature and coronavirus disease 2019 transmissibility (R₀) across 154 Chinese cities. a) Multiple linear regression (p=0.178; AIC=53.82). b) Linear regression with a discontinuous point at 7°C (p=0.049 when temperature is over 7°C; AIC=51.78). The inserted panel shows the likelihood profile of the discontinuous point and its maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). The red triangle is the MLE at 7°C, and the grey triangles are the input samples. c) Spline regression with a knot at 7°C (AIC=53.41). AIC: Akaike information criterion.