Tables
- TABLE 1
Yield of screening, number needed to screen, and relative rates of yield obtained from Bayesian Poisson regression models
Characteristic N Cases with active TB detected Yield of active TB per 100 000 screened (95% CrI) Number needed to screen to detect 1 case of active TB (95% CrI) Relative risk (95% CrI) Mutually adjusted model I: countries >5 cases versus other Mutually adjusted model II: countries with >5000 screened versus other Age group <15 years 24 249 4 16 (6, 39) 6062 (2550, 17 959) 0.20 (0.08, 0.64) 0.22 (0.07, 0.59) 15–24 years 35 390 35 99 (70, 136) 1011 (736, 1427) 0.74 (0.48, 1.16) 0.85 (0.55, 1.31) 25–44 years 51 111 56 110 (84, 141) 913 (708, 1196) Ref. Ref. 45–64 years 7583 3 40 (11, 106) 2528 (947, 8974) 0.48 (0.13, 1.42) 0.45 (0.11, 1.31) >64 years 616 0 0.06 (<0.01, 3.11) 0.03 (1.18, 3.94) Sex Female 36 872 13 35 (20, 59) 2836 (1707, 5060) Ref. Ref. Male 82 051 85 104 (83, 127) 965 (785, 1200) 2.09 (1.17, 3.97) 2.09 (1.15, 3.96) Year 2002–2012 36 647 41 112 (81, 150) 894 (666, 1228) Ref. Ref. 2013 14 407 7 49 (22, 95) 2058 (1048, 4601) 0.42 (0.17, 0.91) 0.48 (0.20, 1.05) 2014 23 916 24 100 (66, 147) 997 (681, 1516) 0.65 (0.36, 1.17) 0.99 (0.58, 1.68) 2015 44 067 26 59 (39, 85) 1695 (1175, 2534) 0.52 (0.30, 0.90) 0.68 (0.40, 1.14) Country# Afghanistan 7433 2 27 (6, 86) 3716 (1159, 17 883) 0.22 (0.04, 0.82) Cameroon 2506 5 200 (76, 437) 501 (229, 1313) 2.70 (0.90, 6.68) Eritrea 1941 9 464 (230, 845) 216 (118, 435) 8.95 (3.83, 19.77) Gambia 6971 18 258 (159, 399) 387 (251, 630) 4.53 (2.42, 8.37) 1.78 (0.99, 3.15) Georgia 2121 5 236 (90, 516) 424 (194, 1111) 4.05 (1.37, 10.26) Iraq 9955 1 10 (1, 47) 9955 (2130, 92 262) 0.06 (<0.01, 0.36) Kosovo 20 336 7 34 (15, 68) 2905 (1480, 6494) 0.86 (0.34, 1.91) 0.37 (0.15, 0.80) Macedonia 7005 2 29 (6, 92) 3502 (1092, 16 854) 0.31 (0.06, 1.14) Pakistan 5103 7 137 (61, 269) 729 (372, 1629) 1.88 (0.74, 4.17) 0.87 (0.37, 1.84) Russia 3026 5 165 (63, 362) 605 (276, 1585) 3.17 (1.07, 7.90) Somalia 1025 7 683 (306, 1336) 146 (75, 327) 11.85 (4.70, 26.65) Syria 17 172 5 29 (11, 64) 3434 (1567, 9000) 0.67 (0.22, 1.68) 0.27 (0.09, 0.65) Other Ref. Ref. The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) was 304 in the mutually adjusted model I and 260 in the mutually adjusted model II. Lower values of the WAIC indicate a better prediction model. #: countries with either ≥5 cases of active tuberculosis (TB) detected or more than 5000 individuals screened. RR: relative risk; CrI: credible interval.
Supplementary Materials
Supplementary Material
K. Bozorgmehr ERJ-02327-2016_Bozorgmehr
B. Joggerst ERJ-02327-2016_Joggerst
C. Stock ERJ-02327-2016_Stock
U. Wagner ERJ-02327-2016_Wagner