Yield of tuberculosis screening in asylum-seekers by country of origin: analysis of screening data in a German federal state (2002–2015)

Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Brigitte Joggerst; Ulrich Wagner; Christian Stock

doi:10.1183/13993003.02327-2016

Tables

Supplementary Materials

TABLE 1

Yield of screening, number needed to screen, and relative rates of yield obtained from Bayesian Poisson regression models

Characteristic	N	Cases with active TB detected	Yield of active TB per 100 000 screened (95% CrI)	Number needed to screen to detect 1 case of active TB (95% CrI)	Relative risk (95% CrI)
					*Mutually adjusted model I: countries >5 cases versus* other**	*Mutually adjusted model II: countries with >5000 screened versus* other**
Age group
<15 years	24 249	4	16 (6, 39)	6062 (2550, 17 959)	0.20 (0.08, 0.64)	0.22 (0.07, 0.59)
15–24 years	35 390	35	99 (70, 136)	1011 (736, 1427)	0.74 (0.48, 1.16)	0.85 (0.55, 1.31)
25–44 years	51 111	56	110 (84, 141)	913 (708, 1196)	Ref.	Ref.
45–64 years	7583	3	40 (11, 106)	2528 (947, 8974)	0.48 (0.13, 1.42)	0.45 (0.11, 1.31)
>64 years	616	0			0.06 (<0.01, 3.11)	0.03 (1.18, 3.94)
Sex
Female	36 872	13	35 (20, 59)	2836 (1707, 5060)	Ref.	Ref.
Male	82 051	85	104 (83, 127)	965 (785, 1200)	2.09 (1.17, 3.97)	2.09 (1.15, 3.96)
Year
2002–2012	36 647	41	112 (81, 150)	894 (666, 1228)	Ref.	Ref.
2013	14 407	7	49 (22, 95)	2058 (1048, 4601)	0.42 (0.17, 0.91)	0.48 (0.20, 1.05)
2014	23 916	24	100 (66, 147)	997 (681, 1516)	0.65 (0.36, 1.17)	0.99 (0.58, 1.68)
2015	44 067	26	59 (39, 85)	1695 (1175, 2534)	0.52 (0.30, 0.90)	0.68 (0.40, 1.14)
Country^#
Afghanistan	7433	2	27 (6, 86)	3716 (1159, 17 883)		0.22 (0.04, 0.82)
Cameroon	2506	5	200 (76, 437)	501 (229, 1313)	2.70 (0.90, 6.68)
Eritrea	1941	9	464 (230, 845)	216 (118, 435)	8.95 (3.83, 19.77)
Gambia	6971	18	258 (159, 399)	387 (251, 630)	4.53 (2.42, 8.37)	1.78 (0.99, 3.15)
Georgia	2121	5	236 (90, 516)	424 (194, 1111)	4.05 (1.37, 10.26)
Iraq	9955	1	10 (1, 47)	9955 (2130, 92 262)		0.06 (<0.01, 0.36)
Kosovo	20 336	7	34 (15, 68)	2905 (1480, 6494)	0.86 (0.34, 1.91)	0.37 (0.15, 0.80)
Macedonia	7005	2	29 (6, 92)	3502 (1092, 16 854)		0.31 (0.06, 1.14)
Pakistan	5103	7	137 (61, 269)	729 (372, 1629)	1.88 (0.74, 4.17)	0.87 (0.37, 1.84)
Russia	3026	5	165 (63, 362)	605 (276, 1585)	3.17 (1.07, 7.90)
Somalia	1025	7	683 (306, 1336)	146 (75, 327)	11.85 (4.70, 26.65)
Syria	17 172	5	29 (11, 64)	3434 (1567, 9000)	0.67 (0.22, 1.68)	0.27 (0.09, 0.65)
Other					Ref.	Ref.

The Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) was 304 in the mutually adjusted model I and 260 in the mutually adjusted model II. Lower values of the WAIC indicate a better prediction model. ^#: countries with either ≥5 cases of active tuberculosis (TB) detected or more than 5000 individuals screened. RR: relative risk; CrI: credible interval.