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Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990–2010

Peter G.J. Burney, Jaymini Patel, Roger Newson, Cosetta Minelli, Mohsen Naghavi
European Respiratory Journal 2015 45: 1239-1247; DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00142414
Peter G.J. Burney
1National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, London, UK
2Wellcome Centre for Global Health, Imperial College, London, UK
3MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College, London, UK
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Jaymini Patel
1National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, London, UK
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Roger Newson
1National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, London, UK
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Cosetta Minelli
1National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, London, UK
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Mohsen Naghavi
4Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
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  • Article
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  • FIGURE 1
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    FIGURE 1

    Age- and sex-adjusted chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in 2010.

  • FIGURE 2
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    FIGURE 2

    a) Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality rates for 1990 and 2010, and b) COPD mortality ratios for 2010:1990 according to sex and age.

  • FIGURE 3
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    FIGURE 3

    Mean age- and sex-specific chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality ratios for 2010:1990 for each of the 21 regions. #: high income.

Tables

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  • TABLE 1

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths, total population and age-standardised COPD mortality rates by region and year

    Region19902010Expected COPD deaths in 2010#
    COPD deathsPopulationAge-standardised COPD mortality per 100 000COPD deathsPopulationAge-standardised COPD mortality per 100 000
    Asia-Pacific¶30 07569 100  0009145 04195 700 0005572 297
    Asia
     Central17 21016 000 00024915 93423 600 00016623 696
     East1 430 132314 000 0001044967 505563 000 0004192 500 856
     South874 239233 000 0009801 009 473418 000 0006391 591 997
     Southeast77 56795 800 000213121 999183 000 000185148 331
    Australasia73577 660 514175877312 000 00010413 669
    Caribbean41787 459 902110652512 500 0001056873
    Europe
     Central43 51347 600 00018038 07657 000 00011061 533
     Eastern97 35888 300 00024660 06398 700 000125121 998
     Western152 394168 000 000142169 312218 000 00098229 961
    Latin America
     Andean29747 878 51299529414 400 000826358
     Central24 60432 500 00018047 78965 500 00016547 131
     Southern10 34015 400 00013815 75622 400 00012117 562
     Tropical34 09034 500 00025654 32065 800 00018475 753
    North Africa/  Middle East29 99756 100 00013746 593114 000 00010860 998
    North America¶105 704106 000 000163167 299158 000 000159157 969
    Oceania10671 010 72332414831 881 7342482004
    Sub-Saharan Africa
     Central75929 093 840237999215 300 00019212 900
     East18 25934 800 00014321 01460 400 0009433 310
     Southern81709 741 673251962516 500 00016715 178
     West18 23836 000 00014416 01159 000 0007531 543
    Total2 995 0581 390 000 0005442 837 8772 280 000 0002915 231 916
    • Data are presented as n. #: calculated as the number of deaths expected in 2010 if the population had been the same as in 1990 in terms of age and sex; ¶: high income.

  • TABLE 2

    Gross national income (GNI) per capita and smoking index by region and year

    RegionGNI per capita $Smoking index
    OverallMaleFemale
    19902010% change#19902010% change#19902010% change#19902010% change#
    Asia-Pacific¶16 23733 840108.4279.0277.7−0.5342.1339.3−0.8215.9216.00.1
    Asia
     Central2444332936.2251.6223.2−11.3311.0261.6−15.9192.1184.9−3.8
     East8847733774.7279.1319.714.5316.7382.120.7241.6257.26.5
     South8643084256.9187.2195.14.2197.7208.15.3176.7182.23.1
     Southeast16895042198.6230.3247.07.2250.3277.710.9210.3216.22.8
    Australasia16 25935 200116.5305.2266.2−12.8379.2300.4−20.8231.3232.00.3
    Caribbean3595669286.1265.5259.5−2.2307.0293.9−4.3223.9225.10.5
    Europe
     Central617315 569152.2308.0294.9−4.2406.1376.2−7.4209.9213.71.8
     Eastern746615 907113.1316.9275.2−13.2436.3360.3−17.4197.5190.0-3.8
     Western15 21635 460133.0313.8278.3−11.341.2338.4−18.5212.5218.12.7
    Latin America
     Andean30337754155.7202.7193.0−4.8210.3192.1−8.6195.1193.9−0.6
     Central633011 45881.0208.7203.2−2.6223.4213.1−4.6194.0193.4−0.3
     Southern489315 242211.5267.9243.3−9.2338.8287.4−15.2197.0199.11.1
     Tropical497510 789116.9221.2218.5−1.3247.5237.5−4.1194.9199.52.3
    North Africa/Middle East41089743137.2225.3218.3−3.1258.6248.7−3.8192.0187.8−2.2
    North America¶22 45046 337106.4353.5315.2−10.8427.9348.1−18.7279.1282.31.1
    Oceania1383271196.0197.0195.5−0.8197.9193.1−2.4196.1197.90.9
    Sub-Saharan Africa
     Central9279492.5181.3182.10.4183.2185.01.0179.5179.3−0.1
     East5611294130.8166.9167.10.1159.6161.11.0174.2173.1−0.7
     Southern5193985489.7256.3217.2−15.3300.9238.4−20.8211.7195.9−7.4
     West854769−9.9168.1166.4−1.0166.7164.4−1.4169.6168.5−0.6
    • Data are presented as n, unless otherwise stated. #: calculated as (value2010−value1990/value1990)×100; ¶: high income.

  • TABLE 3

    Results of the multilevel regression models for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality rate and the COPD mortality rate ratio

    Variablelog COPD mortality ratelog COPD mortality rate ratio for 2010:1990
    19902010Coefficient (95% CI)p-value
    Coefficient (95% CI)p-valueCoefficient (95% CI)p-value
    log smoking index0.43 (0.33–0.52)<0.0010.38 (0.28–0.48)<0.001
    log GNI−0.47 (−0.68– −0.26)<0.001−0.31 (−0.53– −0.08)0.01
    log smoking index ratio for 2010:19900.004 (0.002–0.004)<0.001
    log GNI ratio for 2010:1990−0.34 (−0.60– −0.06)0.02
    Age years
     40–44Ref.Ref.Ref.
     45–490.69 (0.56–0.81)<0.0010.72 (0.58–0.86)<0.0010·04 (−0.04–0.11)0.38
     50–541.47 (1.35–1.59)<0.0011.47 (1.34–1.61)<0.0010·01 (−0.07–0.09)0.76
     55–592.16 (2.03–2.28)<0.0012.19 (2.05–2.32)<0.0010·05 (−0.03–0.13)0.24
     60–642.81 (2.68–2.94)<0.0012.88 (2.74–3.01)<0.0010·10 (0.02–0.18)0.02
     65–693.60 (3.47–3.72)<0.0013.76 (3.62–3.89)<0.0010·19 (0.11–0.27)<0.001
     70–743.91 (3.78–4.04)<0.0014.08 (3.94–4.22)<0.0010·20 (0.12–0.28)<0.001
     75–794.42 (4.29–4.55)<0.0014.62 (4.48–4.77)<0.0010·21 (0.13–0.29)<0.001
     >805.11 (4.98–5.24)<0.0015.43 (5.28–5.57)<0.0010·26 (0.18–0.34)<0.001
    Sex
     MaleRef.Ref.Ref.
     Female−0.56 (−0.62– −0.50)<0.001−0.64 (−0.70– −0.57)<0.001−0.12 (−0.16– −0.07)<0.001
    • GNI: gross national income; Ref.: reference.

Additional Files

  • Figures
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  • ERJ Podcast

    Duration: 10:03 min

    Presenter: Marc Humbert, Chief Editor, ERJ

    Interviewee: Peter G.J. Burney, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College, London, UK

    Articles discussed:

    • Burney PGJ, Patel J, Newson R, et al. Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990?2010. Eur Respir J 2015; 45: 1239-1247. Full Text

    Subscribe to the ERJ Podcast via iTunes, SoundCloud or RSS

    Files in this Data Supplement:

    • Listen to podcast - May 2015
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Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990–2010
Peter G.J. Burney, Jaymini Patel, Roger Newson, Cosetta Minelli, Mohsen Naghavi
European Respiratory Journal May 2015, 45 (5) 1239-1247; DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00142414

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Global and regional trends in COPD mortality, 1990–2010
Peter G.J. Burney, Jaymini Patel, Roger Newson, Cosetta Minelli, Mohsen Naghavi
European Respiratory Journal May 2015, 45 (5) 1239-1247; DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00142414
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