Abstract
Background: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients for an acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD) are high, however predictors for long term outcomes like mortality are still not clear.
Objectives: To investigate 2-year mortality rates and identify potential predictors of mortality in a cohort of patients hospitalized for an acute exacerbation COPD.
Methods: A retrospective, observational cohort study involving all consecutive patients admitted between January 1, 2009 and August 1, 2011 for AE-COPD was performed. Potential risk factors were collected at presentation at the emergency room. The primary endpoint was mortality rate during 2 year follow-up. For statistical analysis we used univariate and multivariate analysis including time to event analysis (cox proportional hazard models).
Results: 374 patients were included in the study. Mean age was 70.4 year (SD 10.63), 50.3% were female and more than halve had severe COPD. 160 patients (42.7%) were previously admitted for AECOPD. The mean Charlson's index was 1.43 (SD 1.57) in which cardiac and metabolic comorbidities were most frequent. The mortality rates for 30 days, 1 and 2 years were respectively: 6.4%, 25.4% and 37.2%. Using multivariate analysis independent predictors for 2-year mortality were: increasing age (CI-95%: 1.03-1.07), male gender (CI-95%: 1.15-2.43), use of Long term oxygen therapy (LTOT) (CI-95%: 2.01-2.43), urea 8.0 mmol/l (CI-95%: 1.00-2.01).
Conclusions: Increasing age, male gender, use of LTOT, high urea-levels were correlated with increased risk for 2-year mortality in patients hospitalised with AECOPD.
- © 2014 ERS