Abstract
Background: In the UK prognostic indicators have been developed for predicting end of life (EOL) in COPD.
We report on the prevalence of these indicators in patients admitted to a nurse led unit for people with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD).
Methods: Data on general and COPD specific prognostic indicators plus the surprise question were collected on all admissions Aug 2010 to Jan 2011.
Results: Total 199 patients (54%F). Mean age 70 (37-93)
In 96 (48%) cases the clinician would not have been surprised if the patient died in the next 6-12 months. In only 5 of these instances were no other prognostic indicators identified (positive predictive value of negative response 95%)
174 (87%) had at least 1 prognostic indicator identified at the time of admission.
Prognostic indicators and surprise question
Of the 15 deaths so far there was a negative response to the surprise question in 14 and in all at least 1 other prognostic indicator was present.
Conclusions: Prognostic indicators were present in 87% of patients admitted.
The surprise question should form part of admission assessment.
It is too early to say which prognostic indicators are important in predicting EOL.
- © 2011 ERS
