Discrimination and calibration for predicting all-cause mortality in the PROMISE study
| Indices | 1-year mortality# | 2-year mortality¶ | ||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | Calibration | C-statistic (95% CI) | Calibration | |
| BODE index+ | 0.76 (0.65–0.87) | 0.9 | 0.69 (0.61–0.78) | 0.2 |
| Updated BODE index+ | 0.78 (0.67–0.89) | 0.7 | 0.70 (0.61–0.78) | 0.6 |
| ADO index§ | 0.72 (0.62–0.82) | 0.3 | 0.72 (0.64–0.79) | 0.8 |
| DOSE index§ | 0.64 (0.54–0.73) | 0.9 | 0.63 (0.55–0.70) | 0.8 |
| Simplified B-AE-D index | 0.78 (0.68–0.87) | 0.4 | 0.74 (0.67–0.81) | 0.5 |
| Simplified B-AE-D-C index | 0.80 (0.71–0.90) | 0.7 | 0.77 (0.70–0.85) | 0.9 |
| Optimised B-AE-D index | 0.78 (0.69–0.88) | 0.9 | 0.75 (0.68–0.82) | 0.9 |
| Optimised B-AE-D-C index | 0.81 (0.71–0.91) | 0.2 | 0.78 (0.70–0.85) | 0.2 |
PROMISE: Predicting Outcome using Systemic Markers in Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; BODE: body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity; ADO: age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction; DOSE: dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; B: body mass index; AE: severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease frequency; D: modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity; C: copeptin. #: n=530; ¶: n=460; +: missing values in lung function test or 6-min walking distance (1 year: n=488, 2 years: n=416); §: missing values in lung function test (1 year: n=525, 2 years: n=444).