Discrimination and calibration for predicting all-cause mortality in the 5-year follow-up subpopulation of the PROMISE study
| Indices | 3-year mortality | 5-year mortality# | ||
| C-statistic (95% CI) | Calibration | C-statistic (95% CI) | Calibration | |
| BODE index¶ | 0.59 (0.50–0.67) | 0.6 | 0.60 (0.54–0.67) | 0.6 |
| Updated BODE index¶ | 0.60 (0.52–0.69) | 0.9 | 0.62 (0.55–0.68) | 0.4 |
| ADO index+ | 0.67 (0.59–0.75) | 0.11 | 0.68 (0.61–0.74) | 0.2 |
| DOSE index+ | 0.58 (0.50–0.65) | 0.7 | 0.58 (0.52–0.64) | 0.2 |
| Simplified B-AE-D index | 0.65 (0.57–0.72) | 0.2 | 0.62 (0.57–0.67) | 0.3 |
| Simplified B-AE-D-C index | 0.71 (0.64–0.79) | 0.7 | 0.68 (0.62–0.74) | 0.4 |
| Optimised B-AE-D index | 0.65 (0.57–0.72) | 0.3 | 0.62 (0.56–0.68) | 0.2 |
| Optimised B-AE-D-C index | 0.71 (0.63–0.78) | 0.10 | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) | 0.07 |
PROMISE: Predicting Outcome using Systemic Markers in Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; BODE: body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity; ADO: age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction; DOSE: dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; B: body mass index; AE: severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease frequency; D: modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity; C: copeptin. #: n=231; ¶: 211 missing values in lung function test or 6-min walking distance; +: 229 missing values in lung function test.