TY - JOUR T1 - Estimates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in terms of prevalence, mortality and costs for England and Scotland for 2011 and 2030 JF - European Respiratory Journal JO - Eur Respir J VL - 44 IS - Suppl 58 SP - P4119 AU - Susannah McLean AU - Martine Hoogendoorn AU - Rudolf Hoogenveen AU - Talitha Feenstra AU - Sarah Wild AU - Colin Simpson AU - Aziz Sheikh AU - Maureen Rutten Van Molken Y1 - 2014/09/01 UR - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/44/Suppl_58/P4119.abstract N2 - Introduction: Governments require accurate projections of the numbers of patients with COPD in order to plan healthcare services for the future. These can be estimated using validated models. The aim of this work was to generate estimates of prevalence, mortality and costs for diagnosed COPD in England and Scotland in 2011 and 2030.Methods: A published dynamic COPD population model developed in the Netherlands was adapted by including age and sex specific estimates of diagnosed COPD incidence and prevalence from primary and secondary care records for England and Scotland for 2011, population mortality data, relative risks of mortality among those with COPD from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and cost data from recent studies, not accounting for inflation.Results: The number of people diagnosed with COPD is estimated to rise between 2011 and 2030 from 952000 to 1349000 persons in England and from 108000 to 128000 persons in Scotland. This represents a rise in overall prevalence from 1.8% to 3.1% in England and from 2.1% to 3.1% in Scotland between 2011 and 2030. It is anticipated that there will be 134000 deaths among people with COPD in 2030, and 14000 deaths in Scotland in 2030. Assuming constant costs per patient, in England the health service costs of COPD are estimated to be £2275 million in 2030, increasing from an estimated £1489 million in 2011 In Scotland the cost will increase to £117 million by 2030 from £92 million in 2011.Conclusion: This model suggests that prevalence and costs of COPD in England and Scotland will increase over the next 20 years due to delayed effects of smoking in the past and ageing of the population. ER -