%0 Journal Article %A Luydmyla Konopkina %A Bogdana Basina %T Main and additional predictors of COPD progression %D 2014 %J European Respiratory Journal %P P3974 %V 44 %N Suppl 58 %X Aim: to determine the significance of different parameters as predictors of COPD progression.Methods: 74 patients with verified stable COPD (age – 62,1±0,91 years, men – 68 (91,9 %), women – 6 (8,1%)), divided into two subgroups: 1 – 37 (50,0%) patients with mild COPD (GOLD I and II), 2 – 37 (50,0%) patients with severe COPD (GOLD III and IV). Statistical analysis (Bayes theorem and Vald's serial (sequential) analysis with calculation of Kulbak's information measure) of 24 parameters: demographic, anamnestic, questionnaire, clinical, functional, laboratory. Prognostic threshold for hypotheses of COPD progressing presence was diagnostic ratio (DR) of +13, and for the hypothesis of absence – the DR of -13.Results: main criteria for the risk of COPD progression are spirometric factors as FEV1(post) (in gradations of ≤55 (DR is +14) and ≤60% pred. (DR is +7)), FEV1(pre) (in gradations of ≤50 (DR is +12) and ≤45% pred. (DR is +13)) and the ratio FEV1/FVC in gradations ≤0,45 as in the pre-dose (DR is +6) like in post-dose (DR is +7). Additional criteria for COPD progressing are other parameters (patient's age over 65 years (DR is +4), active tobacco smoking and ex-smokers over 39 pack/years (DR is +2), the number of points on the scale "impact" according SGRQ more than 60 (DR is +7), plasma levels of C-reactive protein more than 7,4 mg/l (DR is +3)).Conclusions: at determining the risk of COPD progression the levels of lung function during spirometry should be first done; if the impossibility of spirometry additional studies should be done with count of prognostically significant, taking into account this and some demographic and medical history data. %U