TY - JOUR T1 - A systematic review of models of COPD epidemiology JF - European Respiratory Journal JO - Eur Respir J VL - 42 IS - Suppl 57 SP - P939 AU - Susannah McLean AU - Victoria Barbour AU - Aziz Sheikh Y1 - 2013/09/01 UR - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/42/Suppl_57/P939.abstract N2 - BackgroundRecent figures from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 show that the third top global cause of death was Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. To plan future healthcare priorities, detailed understanding is needed of COPD prevalence and burden and how it will evolve. COPD epidemiological models are available.Objectives1. To systematically review existing models which project COPD prevalence and burden2. To assess the included studies for quality of reporting.MethodsA systematic review protocol was registered with PROSPERO. Seven databases and Google were searched for published and unpublished articles from 1980 to July 2012. Two reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Included were epidemiological models which sought to project the incidence, prevalence and mortality of COPD and burden of COPD in terms of general practice visits, emergency department visits, hospital admissions and treatment costs. Excluded were all animal models and individual prognostic models. Two reviewers agreed a quality of reporting score for each model according to a framework.Results20 models were identified and received widely varying quality scores. The models which were used by the World Health Organisation including DISMOD and POPMOD are among the most highly scoring models (16-17/20). Other high scoring models include those developed by a team in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Models depended on different and varied epidemiological inputs and had different levels of mathematical complexity.ConclusionsThe application of epidemiological models to different countries’ COPD populations, including developing nations, will be limited by the availability of accurate epidemiological data. ER -