TY - JOUR T1 - Clinical asthma prediction score (CAPS): Predicting asthma in preschool children at high risk, presenting in primary healthcare JF - European Respiratory Journal JO - Eur Respir J VL - 42 IS - Suppl 57 SP - P1146 AU - Lonneke van der Mark AU - Karina van Wonderen AU - Jacob Mohrs AU - Wim van Aalderen AU - Gerben ter Riet AU - Patrick Bindels Y1 - 2013/09/01 UR - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/42/Suppl_57/P1146.abstract N2 - Rationale: A setting-specific asthma prediction score for preschool children with wheezing and/or dyspnoea presenting in primary healthcare is needed, since existing indices are mainly based on general populations.Objective: To find an optimally informative, yet practical set of predictors for the prediction of asthma in preschool children at high risk who present in primary healthcare.Method: 771 Dutch preschoolers at high risk of asthma were followed prospectively until the age of 6 years. Data on asthma symptoms and environmental conditions were obtained using validated questionnaires, and specific IgE was measured. At the age of 6 years, the presence of asthma was assessed (masked for predictor values), based on asthma symptoms, medication, and bronchial hyperresponsiveness. We developed a clinical asthma prediction score (CAPS) using expert knowledge and bootstrapped multivariable regression methods.Results: 438 children (56.8%) completed the study; asthma prevalence at 6 years was 42.7%. Five parameters optimally predicted asthma: age, family history of asthma or allergy, wheezing-induced sleep disturbances, wheezing in absence of common colds, and specific IgE. CAPS ranges from 0 to 11 points.CAPS scores 3 signify a negative predictive value of 78.4%; scores of >6 signify a positive predictive value of 74.3%.Conclusions: We developed an easy-to-use clinical asthma prediction score (CAPS) for preschoolers with symptoms suggesting asthma who present in primary healthcare. CAPS may guide shared decision-making to tailor the need for medical or nonmedical interventions, and may prove useful in the design and analysis of randomized trials. ER -