RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Predicting later asthma in toddlers: Do environmental exposure data improve a clinical tool? JF European Respiratory Journal JO Eur Respir J FD European Respiratory Society SP P1630 VO 42 IS Suppl 57 A1 Anina Pescatore A1 Ben Spycher A1 Cristian Dogaru A1 Jennifer Baeuml A1 Myrofora Goutaki A1 Erol Gaillard A1 Claudia Kuehni YR 2013 UL http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/42/Suppl_57/P1630.abstract AB Background: We recently developed a simple clinical tool for predicting asthma at school-age in toddlers presenting at the doctor with wheeze or cough (ERJ 2011;38(Supp 55):269-270s). It uses 10 predictors (severity of wheeze, atopic family history, eczema, age and sex), summarized in a score. We now assessed, whether environmental (EV) and socioeconomic (SE) factors improve the predictive performance of this tool.Methods: From a population-based cohort (UK), we included 1-3 year-olds with current wheeze or recurrent cough and related healthcare visits. Current asthma (wheeze needing inhalers) was assessed 5 yrs later. As potential predictors we included the original prediction score, plus EV (nursery care, siblings, cooking and heating fuel, pets, smoking, breastfeeding) and SE factors (Townsend score, overcrowding, traffic density, urban living, parental education, single parents). We first looked at univariable associations between EV and SE factors and asthma 5 yrs later and then used lasso penalized logistic regression to select predictors in a model including all potential predictors.Results: 345/1226 (28%) eligible children had asthma 5 yrs after baseline. Cooking with gas and maternal smoking were associated with asthma (p<0.05). However, in the lasso penalized logistic regression only the original score was selected.Conclusion: Severity of wheeze and family history remain the most important predictors of later asthma in toddlers. Information on EV and SE factors adds little to improve predictive performance of the tool. Further research should investigate the additional value of physiological measurements.Funding:SNF PDFMP3-123162, SNF 32003B-144068, Asthma UK 07/048.