PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Nelly M. Smirnova AU - Anna G. Prihodko AU - Juliy M. Perelman TI - Prediction of deterioration of bronchial asthma (BA) control after six months of basic anti-inflammatory therapy DP - 2012 Sep 01 TA - European Respiratory Journal PG - P507 VI - 40 IP - Suppl 56 4099 - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/40/Suppl_56/P507.short 4100 - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/40/Suppl_56/P507.full SO - Eur Respir J2012 Sep 01; 40 AB - Background: Now it is accepted that the assessment of asthma control should include not only clinical manifestations, but also control of the expected future risk to the patients. Aim: To develop the way of prediction of uncontrolled BA after 6 months of basic anti-inflammatory therapy. Methods: 84 patients with uncontrolled BA were examined. At the first examination the test of isocapnic hyperventilation with cold air (IHCA) was conducted; the collection of the exhaled breath condensate before and after the IHCA with the identification of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) was done. In 24 weeks of basic therapy there was the second clinical examination where the control level over BA symptoms was determined. Depending on the obtained data the patients retrospectively were divided into two groups: the 1st group included 48 patients with the partial or total BA control, the 2nd group consisted of 36 patients with uncontrolled BA. Results: It was established that high airway hyperresponsiveness and the degree of oxidative stress intensity are independent predictors of BA control. On this basis and with the help of discriminant analysis we made a discriminant equation that allows to predict an uncontrolled course of the disease: D=-0.502×FEV1 (after IHCA)+8.062×H2O2 (after IHCA). The boundary value of the discriminant function is 23.07. If D>23.07, an uncontrolled course of the disease after 6 months of basic therapy can be predicted with 91% probability. Conclusion: The application of the developed method gives a possibility of a differentiated approach to the choice of BA basic therapy taking into account the risk of uncontrolled course of the disease.