TY - JOUR T1 - Predictive accuracy of patient reported exacerbation frequency in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease JF - European Respiratory Journal JO - Eur Respir J DO - 10.1183/09031936.00035909 SP - erj00359-2009 AU - J.K. Quint AU - G.C. Donaldson AU - J.R. Hurst AU - J.J.P. Goldring AU - T.R. Seemungal AU - J.A. Wedzicha Y1 - 2010/01/01 UR - http://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2010/07/22/09031936.00035909.abstract N2 - COPD exacerbation frequency (ExF) is important for clinical risk assessment and trial recruitment. To accurately establish ExF patients need to be followed for 1 year though this is not always practical. We compared (1) patient recall of exacerbation number in the year prior to recruitment to the London COPD cohort to the number of exacerbations recorded on diary cards in the subsequent year, and (2) patient recall of their exacerbation number after 1 year follow up with documented exacerbations over the same year.267 patients; (FEV1 1.14 l) recorded worsening of respiratory symptoms on daily diary cards for 1 year. Exacerbations were defined according to our previously validated criteria.There was no difference between exacerbation number recalled by patients prior to recruitment and the number detected in the first year; median 2.0 (1.00–4.00) and 2.0 (1.00–4.00); expected agreement 76.4%, agreement 84.6%, ĸ=0.3469. There was no difference between the number of exacerbations remembered by patients and the number recorded on diary cards over the same 1 year period; median 2.0 (1.0–4.0) both groups; expected agreement 74.9%, actual agreement 93.3%, ĸ=0.6146.Patients remember the number of exacerbations they have in a year. Accuracy is increased when comparing the same 1 year period. Patient recall is sufficiently robust for stratification into frequent and infrequent exacerbator groups for subsequent years. ER -